The Ides of November

NOVEMBER ACOMETH and an informal referendum on the Obama presidency is imminent. In the past few weeks poll numbers from various sources have suggested that the man who promised to change Washington has lost some of his popularity among the voters. The Congressional elections due to take place this November are set to see President Obama lose his majority in Congress.


President Obama’s Democratic Party still holds a majority in both the House and the Senate but with heated contests in Senatorial and House seats now in full swing, the Democrats could lose their majority in one or both houses. A loss of majority in either house would be severely detrimental to the Obama administration and its legislative agenda with two more years left before the 2012 Presidential election.


Throughout his stay at the White House, President Obama has faced staunch opposition from the Republicans who have voted against most of the President’s big legislative issues such as Healthcare and Financial Reform. Obama has relied heavily on his majority to pass bills and has sometimes had to fight members of his own party to get legislation passed, thus holding on to his party’s majority is an imperative though seemingly impossible task. The Gulf Oil Spill has been used by Republicans to portray Obama as a weak leader and his inarticulate Oval Office speech addressing the issue further emphasized that point.


Away from the US, Obama’s foreign policy has been widely criticized for being ineffective. He came into office promising to move away from the policies of former President George W Bush who divided the world into friends and enemies in a simplistic manner. Despite Obama’s attempts, Iran and North Korea remain major problems with their continued recalcitrant attitudes with regard to their respective nuclear programs. The Middle East situation remains tenuous with Israel offering few concessions to its Palestinian neighbours whilst persisting with its construction of settlements in the West Bank and tight controlling of the Gaza strip. Obama has even failed to live up to his promise of closing Guantanamo Bay and increasingly faces charges of being similar to George W Bush in the conducting of some of his foreign policy.


Despite positive forecasts by the president and his administration on economic growth and job increases, the situation on the ground for Middle America has not seemed as shiny. The President faces a loss in support from traditional Democrats who think he is not liberal enough and independent voters who feel he has failed to live up to the promises of his soaring 2008 campaign for the Oval Office.


There have been claims that White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina attempted to offer a job to a Democratic primary candidate who opposed one of the administration’s more favoured candidates. The White House Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel has faced his fare share of negative media coverage and rumours have circulated that he may leave his post next year. All this coupled with the emergence of the Tea Party have worked to add more grey hair to the youthful president.


The real test of his presidency will come should he lose his majority in November; the anti-bipartisan winds which have seen representatives and senators voting along party lines will have to shift considerably should the Democrats lose their majority if Obama wants to get things done. The Republican strategy of just saying ‘no’ will damage the president if he fails to maintain his majority in Congress and his skills as a leader will be fully tested.

President Obama will have to work hard to prevent a roll back to a Republican resurgence in either the House or the Senate otherwise he will face the threat of becoming a lame duck president taking his lines from Congress rather than dictating them. the threat of becoming another Jimmy Carter is real and 2010 could be a precursor to 2012.


Written by Tatenda Goredema, Deputy Editor of Varsity Newspaper.